Afghan War: Aftermath

April 14, 2021 – President Biden announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The President referred to it as the end of America’s longest war, while this might be true for the US, Afghanistan is headed towards the beginning of its next civil war with the Taliban on one side, other militant and ethnic groups on the other and the government in the middle.

The Taliban

As the longest war comes to an end with the withdrawal of US troops, It hardly seems an end for the Taliban. While talking to the BBC, Haji Hekmat, Taliban shadow mayor in the Balkh district claimed, “We have won the war and America has lost.” Later on he added that they are ready for “anything” whether it be peace or “jihad”.

We have won the war and America has lost

Haji Hekmat – Taliban shadow mayor

The Taliban think of the Afghan government as outsiders and not in accordance with the Islamic way. Afghanistan being a multiethnic society has always been embroiled in conflict and the Taliban have never agreed to give power to any ethnic group that does not represent the Pashtuns, nor have they ever supported a multiethnic government which the West deems ideal for Afghanistan. Ethnic violence is so deep-rooted in the Afghan thinking and life that it would take a century if not decades for people to accept each other after a stable system is put in place in Afghanistan after the violence somehow ends. People would slowly be educated and would learn to accept the other person of another tribe and ethnicity who also has 2 eyes, 2 ears, a nose and a mouth.

The Taliban have been on the move establishing checkpoints near big cities and control over districts as their ultimate goal was to overthrow the current government and implement their law which now is very plausible to happen after the troop withdrawal is completed. It would be interesting to see how the peace talks continue afterwards as there are over half a dozen regional and global stakeholders in Afghanistan. With so many stakeholders we might or might not see sabotages to the talks, and if such sabotages occur then the Taliban would need no excuse to resume operations and overthrow the Afghan government with whatever way they seem fit. Things can get messy very quickly and with the precious rare Earth metals Afghanistan is sitting on we may never see peace settle there anytime soon.

The Taliban are not the type who forget their foes easily and if they come to power then they will go after their enemies one way or another, depending on how their government forms. If the talks succeed and they agree to be part of Afghanistan’s system then peace may finally arrive but if they take control forcefully then we will see the worst kind of ethnic and tribal violence.

Rashid Dostum, fighting against the Taliban in 2001 was responsible for the transport of the Taliban fighters who had surrendered to the American and Northern Alliance forces, he is accused of killing over 2000 Taliban fighters by transporting them in sealed shipping containers. An investigation was ordered by President Obama in 2009 and the results are yet to be published. If the allegations hold any truth and Dostum wanting vengeance was indeed behind the suffocation of those fighters then we witnessed just a small event of the thousands that occurred because of the ethnic wars of Afghanistan and the Taliban would do the same if not worse once they seize power.

The civil war between the Afghan Government, the Taliban and the local warlords looks to be is inevitable. Whether it remains for a few months after the troop withdrawal or a few years, it looks inevitable and will start as soon as talks fail either because of a sabotage or a complete uncalled for withdrawal from the table by the Taliban who may look for an excuse once they are sure they can seize control of Kabul.

The Afghan Government

The future of the Afghan government or the “Kabul administration” under President Ghani depends upon the credibility of Afghan Security Forces against the imminent Taliban attacks after the US troops withdraw. The Afghan forces have always appeared to be under-trained and incompetent while the government is also accused of mismanaging and using US given aid for personal benefits. With no transparent way of proving that the public opinion is in their favor they will certainly be in trouble once they lose their writ over the 20-40% of area they have under control. As the Afghan Security Forces are not well trained and seemingly incapable of using and maintaining the supposed military equipment left behind by the US, the equipment and space may fall into the wrong hands, if not then it might end up in the black market or might as well be smuggled out of Afghanistan.

Contrary to our analysis, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani took to twitter after the announcement of the US troop withdrawal and stated “Afghanistan’s proud security and defense forces are fully capable of defending its people and country, which they have been doing all along, and for which the Afghan nation will forever remain grateful.”

Afghanistan’s proud security and defense forces are fully capable of defending its people and country, which they have been doing all along, and for which the Afghan nation will forever remain grateful

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani

As the Taliban control most of the country, It is not Afghanistan that might fall into the Taliban’s hands, but Kabul. The chances for the government to withhold control are seemingly very low.

The People

Afghanistan is a tribal multi-ethnic country inhabiting about 14 ethnicities, The Pashtuns being the majority feel they are the rightful heirs and leaders of the land, the same goes for the Tajiks and all the other ethnicities. With over 60% of the land occupied by the Taliban it does look like they have the support of the average Afghan. The people deem the government as being corrupt, doing no developmental work and only catering to their own needs while being the puppets of the West. They feel the bureaucracy only caters to the families of the elite and people of the same ethnicity the bureaucrat belongs to.

In the Afghanistan that is outside of Kabul the Taliban are not seen as outsiders but rather the Afghan government is, and that is because of how deep ethnic violence and ethnic feudalism has etched into the mind of the average Afghan.

There can be a lot of outcomes for the people of Afghanistan and unfortunately the only one being peaceful is if the Taliban agree to give up arms, be part of the State and fight to disperse other militant outfits. All the other outcomes result in violence; if a sabotage occurs then we might see another never-ending civil war. It might be the Afghan government versus the Taliban or the Taliban taking control of Afghanistan and carrying out ethnic cleansings and mass genocides of all those who oppose them, those they see as enemies and other ethnic minorities like the Hazara who comprise of roughly 15% of Afghanistan’s population, mostly being Shia. The Taliban had declared war on the Hazara people, killing over about 3000 during their rule from 1994 to 2001.

Many today prefer the Taliban over the Afghan government, regarding them as the ‘sons of the soil’ while the rest fear for the second and probably permanent coming of the violent Taliban rule of the 1990s.

The people of Afghanistan though are supporting one side or the other are as unsure as we are over how things would go after the US troop withdrawal finishes, and chances for never-before-seen violence are 10 to 1 as Afghanistan’s twisted ethnic legacy may once again come to haunt it.