Pakistan Prime Minister on verge of starting country’s first civil war

As the Pakistan Opposition’s no-trust vote is likely to oust him, Prime Minister Imran Khan has decided to do whatever he can to save his thin majority coalition government.

With local media claiming the country’s influential military to have become “neutral” – in the new political landscape of Pakistan – because of Khan’s long list of economic and foreign policy failures, along with his refusal to sit with Opposition members who he has declared “corrupt” and “traitors.” Khan, in his eyes, was left with no choice but to go on an offensive – seen suicidal by many – that sent shockwaves throughout a country that has never witnessed such a brazen divide among the elite.

According to the local media, Imran has lost powerful allies in key positions because he has repeatedly refused to work with the Opposition and get the Parliament – which has been dysfunctional since he took office – functional again, and form relationships with other countries on the basis of mutual interest and not personal choice.

The powerful allies in key positions are now being targeted directly by Khan’s supporters on social media, TV anchors who support him through their propaganda drives, and indirectly by Khan himself through cryptic statements coming from his Ministers and Party members.

Unlike the country’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Khan does not blame the military for overthrowing him (yet), but the United States. He has accused the US in his political “power shows” for “buying” the “corrupt traitors” to overthrow his government because he went to Russia. His government has accused the US Embassy in Islamabad of pressuring his Party members to vote against him.

The US has time and again denied Khan’s baseless allegations that revolve around a debunked “letter from the United States” that was later turned into a “diplomatic cable from the Pakistan Ambassador to the US” over an alleged meeting with Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu.

According to Khan and the Ministers considered close to him, Assistant Secretary Lu allegedly ‘threatened the Pakistan Ambassador’ to ‘let the Opposition oust Imran or face consequences.’

This baseless claim has been denied by the US and Khan so far has failed to provide evidence that suggests the US was involved in Pakistan’s political matters.

Khan, according to both local and global analysts studying South Asia is a self-centered populist who will do whatever he can to save his face and ‘fulfill his dream of becoming the first undisputed Prime Minister of the country’ – who also finishes his complete term – that has seen consistent military interventions in its history.

He saw a significant rise in popularity in 2011 after some of his political gatherings drew in massive crowds. Khan became known for his hardliner stance against corruption, horse trading, favoritism and everything considered morally unacceptable in the Western World.

Slowly however, faced with similar situations, Khan began doing the same things he was against. Taking, now infamous, “U-turns” that his political rivals used to their advantage.

After coming to power, Khan’s closest aides were accused of corruption and his government too was marred by corruption scandals.

To save his seat, Khan started the never-ending chain of “U-turns.” Be it his inaction against those accused of corruption in his government, to sending his political rival Sharif – ousted and declared corrupt by him – out of the country, to being at the mercy of horse traders throughout his tenure, etc.

As his government became unpopular, Khan, who has been accused by the Opposition of being “planted” by the country’s military lost popularity there as well. Over time, his speeches or ‘lectures’ as some members of his own Party put it became exhaustive and were nothing more than just words.

With his hypocrisy evident, the Opposition saw a chance and took it. As the country’s crumbling economy was failing and the military too beginning to lose patience against his inability to ‘be a politician’ and build a working relationship with his rivals, Khan has landed to where he is today.

Using the anti-American sentiment that has always been high among Pakistan’s Islamic conservative middle-class since the War on Terror, Khan, has refuted to baseless allegations against the US by stooping to popular conspiracy theories among the Pakistan middle-class of “America is behind it.”

‘America is behind it’ even though the US has pulled out of Afghanistan and Pakistan doesn’t serve the same purpose or relevance as before.

Days after his address that could have destroyed US-Pakistan relations for the next 50 years, Pakistan’s Army Chief, condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, something Khan publicly decided against after his visit from Moscow that according to experts was a failure and came at the worst possible time.

Many in Pakistan suggest that Khan knew his time as the Prime Minister was coming to an end well ahead of the visit to Moscow. According to them, the entire visit was planned only so he could sell the pretense of “I was ousted because I went to Russia.” Their claim is supported by the fact that the “crucial” Moscow visit generated nothing for Pakistan, both economically and diplomatically, instead only created problems as Putin signaled the invasion while Khan was still there.

According to them, Khan knew his time was up because the Opposition had succeeded in convincing the ‘relevant stakeholders’ of the country to ‘dethrone the populist’ who has been busy damaging relations with the US, EU, Middle East, East Asia and even the country’s “all-weather friend” China because of his on the spot populist statements that do well with the conservative majority of Pakistan and the host nation who is appeased but are not practical.

Pakistan’s political landscape is evolving and the military is showing extreme patience against intervening in the mess Khan has created and is adding fuel to.

It will all depend on Khan, he has already called on his supporters to conduct “peaceful protests” throughout the country. Pakistan however, is yet to see any protests and things are relatively calm at the moment.

Khan’s labeling of the Opposition as “traitors of the country” and being “bought by America” will have everlasting effects for both him and his country. Experts believe it is only a matter of time before he uses the locally-known “Islamic card” again.

Khan’s rivals and experts on the matter have defended calling him a hypocrite. Pointing that – apart from his reversals from his fundamental promises to tackle corruption – Khan has called himself a “pacifist” when he’s in the West, loves China’s autocratic one-party rule and strong punishments against the corrupt when he is in Beijing, supports Saudi Arabia’s model of ‘jailing the rich and extracting money’ when he’s there for a visit, and loves Turkey’s mix of Islamic and liberal values when he’s in Turkey.

Things in Pakistan are taking a dangerous turn as the people are running out of patience with the ever-rising prices of every day commodities. With now even political leaders and parties losing popular support, experts fear that a civil war could break out if the public start listening to Khan’s rhetoric of an attack on the country and on Islam.

So far, his calls for ‘peaceful protests’ have not been heeded to but if inflation spikes further and things don’t calm down in the political spectrum then Pakistan might be the starting point of South Asia’s version of the “Arab spring.”

Pakistan’s popular military would be anticipating this outcome and will try to proactively repel the starting point. Which is why the Supreme Court of the country intervened in Parliamentary affairs after the Deputy-Speaker of the Lower House threw the no-trust vote out in a ‘pre-planned attempt to dispel the ousting,’ citing ‘foreign influence.’

The Supreme Court of Pakistan declared the move unconstitutional and ordered the Speaker to reverse the clocks and resume the proceedings.

Khan, in a televised speech of course, showed displeasure but accepted the Court’s ruling. His Ministers however, have today raised questions against the Court’s intervention into Parliamentary matters. Legal experts of the country are predicting this to be another pretense to refuse the Court’s ruling and throw the no-trust vote out.

All eyes are now on Khan, and the military. How long will their patience last and what would be the no-go zone for Khan.

Khan has already promised to become “more dangerous” if he is successfully ousted, and has also declared that his “gun is now aimed at” a high-ranking Opposition member and former President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari who Khan blames for reuniting the Opposition parties and the “relevant stakeholders” against him – according to local media.

If Khan crosses the no-go area then military intervention would be inevitable. Maybe that is what he wants as the Opposition parties have already accused him of sabotage to “pack the entire system” of the country and welcome Martial law.

Whether that happens or not is yet to be seen but the military won’t think twice if its sure the country is heading towards turmoil.

The US is always seen by Pakistan’s middle-class as the enemy because of vast spread conspiracy theories, the populist politicians of the country cash in on this for their election campaigns.

What’s always purposefully ignored is the fact that the US is Pakistan’s biggest export market apart from the decades of aid given to it for its services.

Pakistan’s biggest trade deficit and most imports are from China.