Belarus has started a dangerous trend

Air travel being the World‘s most prominent source of easy and quick travel through not only countries but continents is now exposed to a new and dangerous trend after Belarus’ state-level “hijacking” of Ryanair flight FR4978.

Planes are often safe when they are up in the air and the only dangers they could be exposed to are bad weather conditions, the plane developing a fault, it is crossing over a region engulfed in war and with active air defense systems or if it is hijacked from the inside by terrorists.

On May 23, 2021, as Ryanair flight FR4978 was making its way from Athens to Vilnius it was forced to divert to the Belarusian capital Minsk.

Belarusian fighter jets surrounded and escorted the plane to Minsk when the plane passing through their airspace, they claimed it was related to some security issues but their target was a 26-year-old opposition activist and blogger Roman Protasevich.

Protasevich was arrested along with his companion by the Belarus authorities, which prompted a strong international response with the US reimposing sanctions on 9 state-owned Belarusian companies while urging US citizens not to travel to Belarus, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) urging all European flights not to use the Belarusian airspace.

Major non-EU airlines are also boycotting Belarus and have announced that they would not be using the Belarusian airspace.

Belarus’ airspace had taken Ukraine’s place for air travel when Russia started muscling in Ukraine and now with Belarus seemingly gone as well, air carriers are looking for other alternatives.

The problem for the airliners is that nothing would be as cheap as Ukraine or Belarus.

The only possible ways for airlines to make the journey across Europe and into Asia are through Russia and Romania if not Ukraine and Belarus.

Most airlines would prefer Russia over Romania because they wouldn’t want to cross Iraq and Iran.

Either way, the airlines would suffer with their operational costs and time increasing, affecting their performance, business and air travel.

Belarus is taking full advantage of its geographic location. Knowing airlines won’t take the risk of going through Ukraine and anticipating some to even revert back to using Belarusian airspace, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (“Europe’s Last Dictator”) has gambled by putting his country’s reputation and future on the line just to take down a political adversary.

If international flights are not safe in Europe then they are not safe anywhere in the World.

With the move condemned by the international community and with action rightly being taken, Belarus has intentionally or unintentionally given birth to a new and dangerous trend which can put the aviation industry and air travel at risk.

The country has unknowingly tested out a new way of clamping down on political rivals and the dissenting opinion for every other World leader ambitious enough to do it, and if Belarus can do it and get away with it then so can the rest.

To show that such a move won’t be tolerated and its prevention in the future, the international community is slowly imposing rough sanctions on Belarus and restricting air travel to the country.

Since the “state-sponsored hijacking” took place in Europe and a private international airline was involved the European Union is at the forefront of the action taken against the country.

It is unlikely that Belarus would make such a radical move without the support of an ally, namely Russia.

Knowing that the West would react against the move, President Lukashenko had to gain the backing of Russia as it would have been suicidal otherwise.

Anticipating sanctions Lukashenko would be looking towards Russia for economic support to help him avoid the political chaos that would otherwise ensue his country.

For Belarus, the game is more dangerous than its government has anticipated. Its people have always been split in half when it comes to sliding towards the West or Russia, their tilt has always been at the 50/50 mark.

With the sanctions and isolation by the West, a new doorway has been opened for Russia to cash in on.

Providing assistance when the West placed sanctions, Russia is eyeing to become a hero for the Belarusian people and supporters of the President.

For the West, the question is revolving between letting Belarus slip towards Russia or support it and allow other countries to follow the precedent started by Belarus.

If they back off with the sanctions and show leniency then a new pathway will be opened for countries with similar ambitions.

Any non-action would change the dynamics of the aviation industry that has already been left devastated by the Pandemic, along with it the dynamics of the international air routes will also change and countries would want to draft laws that would allow them to have control over any international flight that is just using the country’s airspace to reach its destination in another country.

If the West stiffens its stance against Belarus then Russia will be more than welcome to fill in the void left by the West and draw in public support from Belarus.

Russia would openly support Belarus when the EU doubles-down on the sanctions and the country would openly welcome Russian assistance.

Overtime, Belarus would be thankful for the Russian help and it would ultimately slip into Russia’s hands until the West either decides to buff up the sanctions to the point where Russia could no longer be capable of helping or remove all sanctions altogether and welcome Belarus back with open arms.

Slowly, more and more countries are condemning Belarus’ action and sanctions are being placed on it.

The primary goal for the World now is to make international travel secure and bring back the confidence while making an example out of Belarus so that this precedent is not followed.

With Biden going to Europe in the middle of June to participate in a NATO meeting, the “state-sponsored hijacking” by Belarus would probably be discussed and along with it the measures to combat such threats and stop them from happening in the future.

For the aviation industry, this event has inevitably damaged it even further and will continue to do so until a new norm is found and the new aviation routes are finalized.

With international carriers bypassing the Belarusian airspace the passengers wanting to travel across Europe can expect to have their flight times and fares increased along with unwanted cancellations at the last minute.

The aviation industry has been shaken once again and at a time when the industry was expecting a massive reopening that could allow it to buzz again after being crushed by the Pandemic.